TY - JOUR
T1 - Explainable Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Unscheduled Hospital Readmissions: Integrating Global and Local Interpretability
AU - Nguyen Thanh Huy
AU - Pham Quang Minh
AU - Le Thi Bich
AU - Tran Van Nam
JF - Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
JO - J Trustworthy Explain Intell Syst
Y1 - 2024
VL - 3
IS - 1
SP - 49
N2 - At present, the majority of healthcare spending is driven by chronic patients who experience multiple readmissions due to their underlying conditions. Implementing individualized prevention frameworks could optimize the clinical management of this demographic. This study aimed to generate localized predictive models utilizing interpretable machine learning approaches to provide early identification of individual unscheduled hospital readmissions. To achieve this, a retrospective case-control investigation was performed, utilizing patient readmission data spanning 2018–2019. Following the cleaning and curation of the initial data repository (n = 76,210), the final sample size comprised n = 29,026 participants. A machine learning analysis evaluated multiple algorithms, employing unscheduled hospital readmission as the dependent variable, alongside local model-agnostic interpretability techniques.The results demonstrated a 13% rate of unscheduled hospital readmissions. Statistically significant variations were identified regarding patient age and length of hospital stay (p < 0.001 in both instances). A logistic regression framework highlighted chronic therapy (odds ratio: 3.75), a history of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio: 1.14), and length of stay (odds ratio: 1.02) as statistically meaningful predictors. Machine learning algorithms demonstrated superior performance concerning sensitivity and complementary evaluation metrics. Within this analytical framework, length of stay and patient age emerged as the primary determinants for forecasting unscheduled readmissions. Notably, other clinical indicators, such as documented allergies and histories of adverse drug reactions, also demonstrated predictive relevance. Individualized prognostic models exhibited high sensitivity. In conclusion, this investigation identified critical determinants governing unscheduled hospital readmissions, highlighting the prominence of age and hospitalization duration. A personalized risk assessment framework capable of predicting readmissions with high accuracy was established. Future investigations should incorporate a broader array of clinical parameters to further optimize the predictive capacity of this model.
UR - https://tipublications.com/l466667269
ER -