TY - JOUR
T1 - Enhancing Transparency in Spatial PM₂.₅ Prediction over Singapore through Explainable Machine Learning
AU - Ravi Kumar
AU - Neha Sharma
AU - Aniket Deshmukh
AU - Sanjay Kulkarni
AU - Arjun Nair
JF - Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
JO - J Trustworthy Explain Intell Syst
Y1 - 2025
VL - 4
IS - 1
SP - 61
N2 - The climate system is heavily influenced by aerosols through direct and indirect pathways, notably the absorption and scattering of radiant energy. Beyond climate impacts, these particles compromise atmospheric visibility and jeopardize public health. Specifically, human populations face exposure to fine particulate matter PM2.5, a major driver of respiratory and cardiovascular pathologies. Long-term modifications in PM levels are generally governed by emission shifts and meteorological patterns, whereas short-term fluctuations are predominantly dictated by immediate weather dynamics. Surface variations in PM2.5 levels are further driven by environmental variables such as temperature, wind velocity, relative humidity, and vegetative coverage.Air quality forecasting has advanced significantly through the application of machine learning. This research explores PM2.5 estimation by utilizing these environmental and meteorological metrics as spatiotemporal inputs. This study evaluates seven years (2014–2021) of in situ PM2.5 measurements gathered from five distinct monitoring stations across Singapore, establishing a baseline dataset for spatial modeling.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel predictive architecture tailored for temporal analysis, utilizing Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB) regression, and the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TP) Auto ML framework, which optimizes via a meta-heuristic genetic algorithm. The TP model demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, achieving a peak Global Performance Index (GPI) of 7.4 in August 2016 and a minimum value of −0.6 in June 2019. These metrics highlight the robust nature of the TP framework; its negative values remained superior to competing models, indicating less pessimistic errors. Finally, the underlying logic of these machine learning systems is clarified using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, which validate the integrity of feature importance and offer deeper insights into the cyclical variations of PM2.5 concentrations.
UR - https://tipublications.com/m942860667
ER -