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Interpretable Deep CNNs through Binary Tree Structure Convolution and Decision-Path Learning
While deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) have achieved substantial breakthroughs in computer vision, these models are frequently criticized for their lack of interpretability during decision-making. A core issue is that their underlying operational mechanism is generally perceived as a "black-box." To address this, the authors introduce the binary tree structure convolution (BTSC) module and control the activation thresholds of specific neurons to construct an interpretable DCNN framework. First, the authors develop the BTSC module, where every parent node branches into two distinct child layers, which are subsequently integrated into a standard DCNN architecture. The primary benefits of the BTSC module include: 1) child nodes emerging from separate parent nodes operate without mutual interference; 2) parent and child nodes are capable of knowledge inheritance. Second, by managing neural activation states, the authors design an information coding objective that directs neural nodes toward acquiring a predefined, targeted information coding scheme. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that: 1) the decisions executed by both ResNet and DenseNet models can be effectively clarified via the "decision information flow path" (termed the decision-path) established within the BTSC module; 2) this decision-path offers a logical explanation for the decision reversal mechanism (Robustness mechanism) inherent in DCNN models; 3) the reliability of a decision can be quantified by evaluating the alignment between the actual and anticipated decision-paths.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2023 | Article: 31

Explainable Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Unscheduled Hospital Readmissions: Integrating Global and Local Interpretability
At present, the majority of healthcare spending is driven by chronic patients who experience multiple readmissions due to their underlying conditions. Implementing individualized prevention frameworks could optimize the clinical management of this demographic. This study aimed to generate localized predictive models utilizing interpretable machine learning approaches to provide early identification of individual unscheduled hospital readmissions. To achieve this, a retrospective case-control investigation was performed, utilizing patient readmission data spanning 2018–2019. Following the cleaning and curation of the initial data repository (n = 76,210), the final sample size comprised n = 29,026 participants. A machine learning analysis evaluated multiple algorithms, employing unscheduled hospital readmission as the dependent variable, alongside local model-agnostic interpretability techniques.The results demonstrated a 13% rate of unscheduled hospital readmissions. Statistically significant variations were identified regarding patient age and length of hospital stay (p < 0.001 in both instances). A logistic regression framework highlighted chronic therapy (odds ratio: 3.75), a history of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio: 1.14), and length of stay (odds ratio: 1.02) as statistically meaningful predictors. Machine learning algorithms demonstrated superior performance concerning sensitivity and complementary evaluation metrics. Within this analytical framework, length of stay and patient age emerged as the primary determinants for forecasting unscheduled readmissions. Notably, other clinical indicators, such as documented allergies and histories of adverse drug reactions, also demonstrated predictive relevance. Individualized prognostic models exhibited high sensitivity. In conclusion, this investigation identified critical determinants governing unscheduled hospital readmissions, highlighting the prominence of age and hospitalization duration. A personalized risk assessment framework capable of predicting readmissions with high accuracy was established. Future investigations should incorporate a broader array of clinical parameters to further optimize the predictive capacity of this model.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2024 | Article: 49