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From Prediction to Intervention: A Causal Explainability Framework for Counterfactual Reasoning, Mechanism Discovery, Confounding Control, and Decision Validity
Explainable artificial intelligence increasingly supports decisions whose consequences extend beyond prediction, yet many explanations remain grounded in associations, feature contributions, saliency, or local perturbations. Such outputs may clarify model behaviour without establishing what would happen under intervention, why an outcome arose through a particular mechanism, or whether a proposed change is feasible and decision-valid. This article develops a conceptual causal explainability framework for moving from prediction-oriented explanation toward intervention-aware reasoning. The framework begins by separating predictive, associative, and model-behaviour claims from causal questions. It then connects explicit causal assumptions with causal structures, mechanistic reasoning, interventional explanation, counterfactual reasoning, confounding assessment, identifiability, sensitivity, external validity, uncertainty communication, and human interpretation. Particular attention is given to the distinction between model counterfactuals and real-world recourse, the risks created by unmeasured confounding, selection and collider bias, and the need to define decision boundaries before explanations inform action. Human users are treated as active interpreters whose causal literacy, expertise, cognitive constraints, and susceptibility to false causal confidence affect explanation usefulness. The main contribution is an integrated framework that organizes the evidential transition from prediction to intervention while preserving explicit no-guarantee boundaries concerning causal truth, intervention validity, recourse, identifiability, human understanding, decision validity, and deployment readiness. The framework is intended to support disciplined conceptual development and evaluation planning, not to prescribe a universal causal model, intervention procedure, or operational decision system.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2026 | Article: 88

Say What the Model Does Not Know: A Framework for Confidence Calibration, Ambiguity Disclosure, Risk Communication, and Selective Prediction in Explainable Decision Intelligence
Intelligent systems increasingly provide predictions, recommendations, and explanations in decisions where uncertainty can materially affect interpretation and action. Yet many explainable systems foreground predicted outcomes or feature contributions while inadequately communicating what the model does not know. This article proposes a conceptual uncertainty-aware explainable decision-intelligence framework organized around four connected responsibilities: calibrating confidence, disclosing ambiguity, communicating decision-relevant risk, and supporting selective prediction or abstention when available evidence is insufficient. The framework treats uncertainty as a trustworthiness requirement rather than a secondary technical output. It distinguishes aleatoric uncertainty arising from irreducible variability, epistemic uncertainty associated with limited knowledge or evidence, and distributional uncertainty arising when operating conditions depart from those represented during development. It further connects confidence calibration and miscalibration review with prediction qualification, rejection, abstention, deferral, and human review. Ambiguity disclosure and risk communication are positioned as interpretive functions that should clarify scope limitations, competing interpretations, possible consequences, and appropriate next actions without implying that communication alone guarantees understanding. Human decision support is addressed through escalation pathways, oversight, trust calibration, and evaluation of overreliance, underreliance, automation bias, and cognitive burden. The principal contribution is an integrated framework that links uncertainty identification, calibrated interpretation, selective system behavior, human review, monitoring, and feedback updating. The framework supports conceptual development and domain-specific evaluation but does not independently establish correctness, safety, decision validity, ethical sufficiency, legal compliance, or deployment readiness.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2026 | Article: 89