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Advancing Trustworthy Multi-Modal Motion Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles through Holistic Evaluation and Interpretable Outputs
Anticipating the movement of nearby traffic participants allows automated vehicles to formulate safe and efficient navigation strategies. This undertaking is highly intricate, given that the conduct of road users is shaped by numerous variables, resulting in a substantial variety of potential future paths (multi-modality). The majority of previous methodologies designed to tackle multi-modal trajectory forecasting rely on intricate machine learning architectures that offer minimal interpretability. Furthermore, the performance measures utilized in contemporary benchmarks fail to assess every dimension of the issue, particularly regarding the variety and validity of the generated paths.The authors intend to progress the creation of dependable trajectory forecasting systems by aligning with specific tenets established for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence. The primary emphasis is directed toward assessment benchmarks, structural resilience, and the explainability of model outputs. Initially, existing appraisal metrics undergo a detailed examination to pinpoint the major deficiencies in current benchmarks, leading to the introduction of a new, comprehensive assessment framework. Following this, a methodology to evaluate spatial and temporal resilience is developed by replicating sensor noise within the perception pipeline. To improve output interpretability and produce more equitable outcomes across the proposed evaluation metrics, an intention forecasting layer is introduced that can be integrated into existing multi-modal trajectory models. The utility of this configuration is analyzed via a user study that investigates distinct graphical representations of multi-modal paths and driver intents. The introduced methodology and subsequent insights offer a meaningful advancement toward constructing dependable trajectory forecasting frameworks for automated vehicles, shifting the discipline toward elevated levels of safety and operational dependability.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2023 | Article: 36

Enhancing Transparency in Spatial PM₂.₅ Prediction over Singapore through Explainable Machine Learning
The climate system is heavily influenced by aerosols through direct and indirect pathways, notably the absorption and scattering of radiant energy. Beyond climate impacts, these particles compromise atmospheric visibility and jeopardize public health. Specifically, human populations face exposure to fine particulate matter PM2.5, a major driver of respiratory and cardiovascular pathologies. Long-term modifications in PM levels are generally governed by emission shifts and meteorological patterns, whereas short-term fluctuations are predominantly dictated by immediate weather dynamics. Surface variations in PM2.5 levels are further driven by environmental variables such as temperature, wind velocity, relative humidity, and vegetative coverage.Air quality forecasting has advanced significantly through the application of machine learning. This research explores PM2.5 estimation by utilizing these environmental and meteorological metrics as spatiotemporal inputs. This study evaluates seven years (2014–2021) of in situ PM2.5 measurements gathered from five distinct monitoring stations across Singapore, establishing a baseline dataset for spatial modeling.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel predictive architecture tailored for temporal analysis, utilizing Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB) regression, and the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TP) Auto ML framework, which optimizes via a meta-heuristic genetic algorithm. The TP model demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, achieving a peak Global Performance Index (GPI) of 7.4 in August 2016 and a minimum value of −0.6 in June 2019. These metrics highlight the robust nature of the TP framework; its negative values remained superior to competing models, indicating less pessimistic errors. Finally, the underlying logic of these machine learning systems is clarified using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, which validate the integrity of feature importance and offer deeper insights into the cyclical variations of PM2.5 concentrations.
Journal of Trustworthy and Explainable Intelligent Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2025 | Article: 61